This isn't 1997.
The consensus is that the next election will result in a Labour victory - but which factors were in play the last time that happened?
A victory for either party at the next general election would, one way or another, be unprecedented. It would either see the Conservatives winning an historic fifth term, or else Labour ushered in for the first time since 1997, with a record-breaking swing.
In the first instance, it would be the first time that any political party has won a fifth consecutive term in modern UK political history. That said, we do have to temper that with the fact that the political upset centred around Brexit meant that we had three Parliaments and three different Prime Ministers in the short period from 2015-19.
In the second instance, for Keir Starmer’s Labour to win a majority of just one seat would require the biggest increase of MPs that any major party has achieved in one sitting – bigger even than under Tony Blair, whom Starmer is demonstrably not. The scale of Labour’s challenge has led to questions about whether, as in 1974 under Harold Wilson, Starmer might need not one, but two general elections in order to take power.
Of the two scenarios, the common consensus – for now at least, given current polling – is that the second is more likely to happen, and that we are heading for a change of government at the next election. With that in mind, it’s worth looking at the many, varied factors which led to the last Conservative to Labour change in 1997.
This article is in development: more soon.
Outside of Labour's own success in 1997, which other factors do you think contributed to their historic victory under Tony Blair?